Optimism is certainly an important ingredient in any declarer's makeup, but a positive outlook must always be tempered with an equal degree of pessimism.  Without this latter trait, a declarer may all too often blithely plunge ahead and in so doing miss a superior line of play.

Take this case where you are in 3NT and win the opening heart lead with the jack.  If you are overly optimistic, it would seem automatic to play the queen of diamonds at trick two and finesse.  But if you did, you'd quickly go down one, losing four heart tricks and a diamond.

But suppose, before playing the queen of diamonds at trick two, you stopped to think about what might happen if East had the king of diamonds.  After all, there's a 50% chance that he has that card, and if he does, your chances of making the contract would be virtually nil.

This possibility should cause you to turn your attention to the excellent chance  of developing at least three spade tricks without running the risk of East's gaining the lead.  So at trick two, you cross to dummy's king of clubs, lead the nine of spades and let it ride.  As it happens, the nine loses to West's jack, but no return by him can harm you.

Let's say he shifts to a club.  You win in dummy and try another spade finesse.  When it succeeds, you are home free.  You can return to dummy with a diamond to repeat the finesse, after which you have nine sure tricks.

By tackling spades instead of diamonds, you raise a 50% chance for the contract to about 75% - the probability of finding East with either one or both of the missing spade honours.

Source: Steve Becker, Globe and Mail, July 10, 2024