46  The Traffic-light System

This is for advanced players, or shall maybe bold players? Either way you use it at your own risk. It is played by thousands of people already, so there must be something in it. What is it?

Earlier, I recommended that when you make risky bids such as weak twos, overcalls and pre-empts, you should have counted your Playing Tricks (not points except for the 1NT overcall), and then add 2 or 3 tricks because you don’t know your partner’s hand but you do not expect her to have nothing. We used the Rule of 2 and 3 which says add 2 if you are vulnerable and 3 if not. The reasoning behind this says that you can probably make the contract by adding this number, but if partner’s hand turns out useless and you are doubled, then you will not lose more than 500, and if you do, your opponents have failed to bid a contract worth even more than 500.

This practice held sway for many years before the more modern concept took over – the Rule of 2, 3, and 4. This also involves vulnerability but in a more complex way, by including the opponents’ vulnerability in the calculation. There are four possible combinations: a) Neither side vul, b) Both sides vul, c) Only they vul, d) Only you vul.

Both a and b are called Neutral vulnerability

c is called Favourable vulnerability

d is called Unfavourable vulnerability

Make sure you have grasped everything I have said so far.

Now you can see where using the analogy of traffic-lights can help:

When the vulnerability is Unfavourable the traffic-light is RED

When the vulnerability is Neutral  the traffic-light is AMBER

When the vulnerability is Favourable the traffic-light is GREEN

And the Rule of 2, 3, and 4 says when red add 2, when amber add 3, and when green add 4 tricks to your hand value. It’s adding four invisible tricks that takes a bit of nerve.

OK, here we go: I’m going to overcall in hearts at green vulnerability, my hearts suit is KQJxxx which is 2HT plus 3 for the long small cards = 5 PTs (playing tricks). The rest of the hand includes an ace, that’s it. So that’s 6 PTs now. We’re green, add 4, that’s 10, the overcall is 4H – go for it. Will it make? Time will tell. If it doesn’t , say you go down two, not doubled, you lose 100 and the opponents have surely missed a contract worth more, may much more, maybe a 4S contract which they had no time to find. If you are doubled, two down is 300 and they have surely missed a vulnerable game for 620. See how it works? Bidding to the theoretical limit doesn’t promise that you’ll make the contract, but it assures you it will pay you to bid it.

With the same hand at RED you would overcall only 2H so your partner is now captain knowing you have at least 5 trumps and will use the Law of Total Tricks. If she goes 3H on the basis of that 5 trumps you can now go 4H because you have 6 trumps. Yes, it can all get a bit complicated which is why I said it was not for shrinking violets.  Maybe dip your toe into the system now and then to see how you get on?